Thursday 29th May - VPA UK Market Scan
WKP-ALFA-CCR
I am fascinated by the world of AI, I honestly believe we are at one of those pivotable moments in time where there is going to be a sudden shift in the way we work. Of course this doesn’t come without its concerns. What happens if it becomes so clever and just runs away with its self and starts installing itself between servers because it thinks its existence is under threat? Eventually taking over the world in a Terminator Skynet Fashion?
You are right, that does sound completely far fetched…or does it?
This week it turns our the San Francisco based Claude failed some of its routine safety tests because its software engineers learned that the model started to show signs of concerning behaviour as the AI model learned how to blackmail its users to avoid deactivation.
Skynet is getting closer.
It has been announced that Trump was actually acting beyond his legal limits as far as imposing the new Tariff and now been blocked from doing so. What an absolute shambles.
But what does this mean for the markets? Could we see a resumption of the S&P mega trend? Will this damage to international trade relations. Or are we all just going to forget about it and carry on as normal?
In other news which I found fascinating, I was surprised to learn how many publicly listed companies own bitcoin. Turns out there is over 114 of them in the US alone (probably more in the UK as well).
This has increased by over 25 companies since the start of April.
GameStop is one of them who recently announced a $500 million purchase. I don’t feel like this is going to end well.
Disclaimer
Just a friendly heads up, I'll be sharing what I'm looking at frequently, maybe even what I'm dabbling in (for informational purposes only, naturally). I will always use stops, and I highly recommend using them unless you know what you are doing and know the risks involved.
But here's the crux of it, I'm not giving advice, neither will you find any recommendations here, just having a natter about the markets. Always do your own research, and if you want any advise go and see someone who is financially qualified. I am not! I will be sharing observations and content for educational and entertainment only, not providing financial advice. Thanks
WKP: Workplace Group
This one has had a torrid time as of late, with the price of Workspace falling from from around 650 from last September.
The recent tight prices and a little bowl forming caught my eye here a little bit.
Price
From a price point of view we can see a degree of tightening over the last week or so. Not only that but there have been around 4 rejections to the downside, with the last trading session showing a slightly raised low on the rejection.
A good sign, tells me there is a lack no more stock available at lower prices.
Volume
Volume adds to the confidence level here, even rewinding back 7 days. We can see on the initial push down there was a huge spike in volume as the price retraced back to its roots.
The market makers found value in the stock around the 400p level.
Thursdays trading session just gives that little extra confidence to the gap up in price there is weight behind it. By which I mean a sudden increase in relative volume.
Looks positive so far.
Support and Resistance
There are only 2 real significant short term price barriers here.
Looking to the downside is one of a historical low, but the last time the price was trading around here was back in 2022. Still add the volume into the mix and that area looks valuable again.
To the upside the last significant overhead resistance was about 456.
Right in the middle of the range, not a huge conviction trade, but one I will keep my eye on.
ALFA: Alfa Financial Software Holdings
Yesterday was already starting to show signs of weakness as the prices started to reject over a number of days at a previous resistance level.
Potential short setup brewing with a favourable risk to reward level. I would set a very loose target for the price to return back to 200p.
Price
What I like the most here is the rejection to the upside yet the price is failing to move higher.
Checking this again today and it the price is still failing to move higher to which is starting to confirm there is resistance at this level.
Volume
Volume speaks for its self here, if the price is closing back down to where it opened on which a sudden rise in volume, then this is telling me holders are unloading into the rise.
Starting to validate this as a potential short setup.
Support and Resistance
There is a very clear overhead resistance here which has repelled the price 2 times in the past around the current levels.
Although we have to be mindful this has been on a strong uptrend for a while.
I am confident that after todays trading its confirming the weakness and there is still an opportunity up for grabs here providing stops are put in the right places.
CCR: C&C Group
A potential sudden change of sentiment here after a very strong uptrend since the start of April.
A short bodied down candle with a large wick the the upside on high volume looks like a red flag, this is had a good run lately so it could very much be some profit taking here rather than a terminal decline.
Can’t ignore the sudden volume coming in over yesterday, and today is even higher creating another wick to the upside.
Zooming out a little we can see the price is starting to approach a previous area of congestion.
It traded sideways here for quite some time before giving up on all of its gains, so it would be interesting to see if it could hold again.
If we began to see it consolidate and the prices tighten up then I would be very cautious about this selling off.
Could I ask a small favour?
Writing is a new endeavour to me, but its one I hugely enjoy, but its tough when no on `e shows up. Sub stack operates a little differently to other social sites whereby your work doesn’t just magically appear in front of others.
I would greatly appreciate your help in sharing my Substack. It only requires a single click and takes less time than it would to read this message.
Thank you!
Sean